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Physician Supply Shortage – Projections to 2034 (AAMC pdf)

Extensive AAMC report projecting physician supply and demand by 2034. Model projections show a shortage of 37,800 to 124,000 doctors. Primary care doctors are projected to be short of the number needed, in the range of 17,800 to 48,000. Surprising as it may be, authors explain that when population health improves for weight loss goals, better control of blood pressure, cholesterol, and blood glucose levels; and fewer people smoke, that the long-term demand for physicians actually increases. According to the AAMC modeling, improved health reduces deaths, which in turn, means people live longer. The result is that a larger, older population needs more health care, thereby increasing demand for physicians. With greater use of Advanced Practice Registered Nurses (e.g. Nurse Practitioners) and Physician Assistants, the physician shortage is lessened. Report by the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC), updated June 2021; 92 pages.

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