A study of the supply and demand for Critical Care Physicians and Nurse Practitioners projects a surplus relative to needs by 2025. While demand is expected to grow by 16% between 2013 and 2025, the supply is expected to be more than adequate, growing by 57% (physicians) and 73% (critical care nurse practitioners). Projection published in 2016.
Data released December 2017 by the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) on medical students, applicants to, and graduates of medical schools in 2017. Graphs provide demographic overview of enrollment diversity
AAMC FACTS tables present data on U.S. medical school applicants, matriculants, enrollments, graduates as well as data on M.D.-Ph.D. students and on residents. Pub. by Association of American Medical Colleges, updated 2019
Biennial Survey results for 2018 show 80% of physicians describe themselves as either overextended or at full capacity. Nearly the same percentage (78%) have felt burned out at least some of the time. Work hours average 51 per week. On average, doctors are seeing 20 patients per day. Nearly 1 in 5 (18.5%) are practicing some telemedicine. Most have reduced their prescriptions of pain medications. More than half (55%) of physicians rated their morale as somewhat or very negative, with 40% saying they often or always have feelings of burnout (down from 2 years ago). Just 31% describe themselves as being in independent practice (vs. 33% two years earlier). Top two drivers of satisfaction were Patient Relationships and Intellectual Stimulation. More than half were pessimistic both about the current state and future of the medical profession, with Primary Care being somewhat more positive than Specialists. Survey by Merritt Hawkins for The Physicians Foundation, April-June 2018, about 9,000 respondents, released Sept. 2018
Extensive report projecting physician supply and demand by 2032. Model projections show a shortage of 46,900 to 121,900 doctors. Primary care doctors are projected to be short of the number needed, in the range of 21,000 to 55,000. Surprising as it may be, authors explain that when population health improves for weight loss goals, better control of blood pressure, cholesterol, and blood glucose levels; and fewer people smoke, that the demand for physicians actually increases. According to the AAMC modeling, improved health reduces deaths, which in turn, means people live longer. The result is that a larger, older population needs more health care, thereby increasing demand for physicians. Report by the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC), updated April 2019; 86 pages
Federal agency Health Resources and Services Administration report projects the adequacy of supply of primary care practitioners to the year 2025. The projected physician shortage in primary care of nearly 24,000 doctors by 2025 can be offset and covered by full deployment of available Nurse Practitioners (NPs) and Physician Assistants. The report identifies studies show that NPs can manage 80 to 90 percent of care provided by primary care physicians such as, take medical histories, conduct exams, order and interpret tests, develop treatment plans, and provide preventive care.
Summary data (2018 compensation) from the 2019 survey of physician compensation in medical group practices. Only selected numbers are provided in this overview published August 2019. Annual Survey by the American Medical Group Association. Full report requires purchase
Article by Barger, Ayas, et al, reported the research on long shifts and medical errors. Specifically analyzed was the Impact of Extended-Duration Shifts (>24 hours) on Medical Errors, and preventable Adverse Events by first-year residents (interns). Conclusion: fatigue from long shifts increases the risk of significant medical errors, adverse events, and attention failures by physicians. Article published at PLoS Medicine December 2006; Data from 2002-2003