Forecasts and Models: Coronavirus COVID-19

Primary Listings

What’s your local risk of Covid and Flu, by Zip Code? Editor's Pick

Put in your zip code to see what the latest risk is for COVID and Flu. Site by Kinsa HealthWeather uses Johns Hopkins data and other modeling. Easy to use. Updated nightly.

CDC Forecast of Covid-19 Deaths (ensemble models)

CDC ensemble model forecast of Covid-19 deaths. It examines up to 40 national forecasts and models each week and makes a range forecast of deaths for the next 4 weeks. State-specific forecasts are also available at this site. Hospitalization forecasts and case forecasts are also available Details are provided on the models. Some models provide forecasts of new deaths only. The forecasts make different assumptions about social distancing measures. It is not clear whether vaccination rates are also incorporated into the models. By May 28, 2022, the US is predicted to exceed the 1 million mark in deaths. It is estimated to rise as high as 1,007,000. CDC stands for the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Covid Act Now Model and State Trends – Georgetown, Stanford

A model by Covid Act Now, supported by Georgetown and Stanford universities, provides trends on daily cases per 100,000, infection rates (how fast the COVID infection is spreading), the positive test rate, and the percent of people who are vaccinated. In each state, there are likely some county-specific data to help understand the direction of their forecast. Easy to read. One major omission is the percent of population boosted (and double-boosted).

What Does the Future Look Like in My State? IHME Univ of Washington Model

The University of Washington IHME Model shows past trends and what the future might look like for COVID-19 deaths and hospital use in each state. In regularly updated forecasts, daily deaths and Covid vaccinations are projected. Updated May 16, 2022.

Estimates are prepared by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), part of UW. The prediction model has evolved over the past 2 years. Boosters and vaccination rate assumptions have been incorporated into the model. Estimated and confirmed infections, mask-wearing assumptions, cell phone mobility data, and easing of restrictions have also been built into the model. The COVID-19 projection model is still subject to change. International estimates are also included in this interactive modeling tool. Deaths per 100,000 population aid in making comparisons among countries.